"I am the danger" - Walter Hartwell White

October 30, 2014

Fed juice

The FED really talked up the market and the economy in it's release Wednesday.  It was almost like a parent sending their kid off to kindergarten.  Given the recent reactions to central banker commentary, they are probably starting to think they can talk markets up.  Adding in the talking it up variable really makes this operation more complex.  They'll make some miscalculations, they're human.  The question is when and how big will they be?

Lest we forget the FED's prime time player Bernanke is gone.  He was the orchestrator.  Are the Heat the same without LeBron James?  Hell no.

The stock only A/D line hit it's upper boundary Tuesday.  Often this coincides with very short term tops.  It'll be interesting to see how much we pull back here.

Trade 'em well

October 26, 2014

Rotation Report: Juice

Shorts are being squeezed like none other.  It's an interesting landscape out there with some potential signs of a bottom like breadth and sentiment.  Also, there are a few unmet measured moves lower.  If we make new highs in semi's and SPY, that'd speak to how strong this move really is.  

It seems like everybody is waiting to see this next dip/pullback/whatever to judge the market's strength.  I know I am.  Maybe that's not how this plays out.  We'll see.  Let's dig in.

The NYSE Composite closed the week right at the trend-line connecting 2009 and 2011 lows.

The NYSE Advance-Decline line is still tracking the S&P 500. 

There were some false breakdowns in the growth to value ratios.  Now we're seeing upside breakouts  The market seems to want beta.

The Show-Me-Tell-Me ratio has completely stalled out at the falling 50D.  It's been stuck for over a week now as the market advances.

VIX term structure sure eased up on the fear sure quick.  Note this level acted as resistance in August and September.

Airlines are back at major resistance.  They already broke RS resistance.  Impressive stuff.

Retail RS has been a dud.  Where is that extra boost from the gas tax cut?

We're at a key point in the developed - emerging markets ratio

The Middle East ETF could be a large continuation wedge

The euro's weakness is incredible.  The 2013 lows are acting as resistance.

Speaking of weakness, the CRB is in a strong downtrend thanks in large part to oil.  Price is compressed and looks near a meaningful move

Crude continues to hold it's LT support line

Gold relative strength is still a mess after it's false trend break.  

Trade 'em well!

October 21, 2014

Gold Miners

We keep seeing headlines about Japan buying stocks and the ECB buying corporate bonds and all of that.  So I took a long hard look at Gold Miners.   After doing some work, I took a long this morning in the highly speculative gold miners ETF JNUG.

We can see the recent consolidation has started working off a major oversold condition.  This thing appears to be a choppy mess, but surprisingly the 10D MA is curling higher.  I also find the RS downtrend break interesting.  Today's gap up is what i'm trading against.  There is clearly some resistance at 22 and above that there is room until we hit the falling 50D in the 23's.  It may be best to wait until 22 gives way.  

The weekly view shows the GDX testing 2013 lows.  Who knows how this plays out, but there are oversold conditions being worked off with the MA's still needing to catch up.

    Trade 'em well!  Thanks for reading


All ideas shown on this blog represent the authors opinion based on the data available.