"Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth" Mike Tyson

April 13, 2014

A few Master's weekend charts

AKAM is pulling into the 2013 high pivot.  51, 49 and 47 are fib confluences.  Maybe this isn't close to the right time to buy a position, but it doesn't hurt to look.

GLNG - what superb strength here.  Energy is the strongest space in the market and this is a European nat gas shipping play.  It could easily get hot on any fresh Russian tensions.

HNRG is another energy name just breaking out of a 3.5 year downtrend

EXAS - one of many fresh biotech breakdowns.  The story is very interesting (non-invasive colon cancer screening), but we have to respect risk.

ENTR - If you noticed the huge semiconductor rally to 10 year highs, you didn't notice this name, because it hasn't made a 52 week high since 2010.  It could be in for a huge drop below support here.

This is THE key stock for Europe IMO.  It wedged up for a year and now it's breaking down.  If it can't hold horizontal support look for a test of 40.

This software stock ELLI has given up it's gains off the Feb low in stupendous fashion.  It has horizontal support down to 22.50, but it's very vulnerable to a sharp decline.

Alternative energy is sitting on trend support.  Junk solars have broken down and chinese solar YGE was out with a warning of soft chinese demand.  What's next?

CREE - sitting on long time support, the momentum and relative strength left this name a long time ago.  We can also see some MACD divergences that have meant nothing to the stock price.  While ruling out a bounce while a stock is at support is never a good idea, a breakdown could set up a 10+% down day.

April 07, 2014

Position update: 4/7/14

Hey all, there are plenty of reviews and thoughts here. but first a quick note: 

I'm dis-continuing a couple segments of the site including posting these trades for a couple of reasons:  I try to incorporate the lessons I've learned, but there has been 0 feedback that it helps anybody.  I've also got some exciting new ideas coming later this week to share market lessons you can't find anywhere else!  

As always, these trades are live tweeted on twitter and stocktwits.  

I took a long in WDAY at 76.87.  Why?  There's a very precise fib cluster and if it's going to bounce, it'll try to bounce here.  We have real tight stop at 75, with bounce targets of 84 and 88.

This is pure knife catching, no way around it.  I wait for great confluences like this.

UPL keeps trading like a beauty.  It's overbought short term, and I'll cut it in half if it breaks below the bearish engulfing day range.  It may be a mistake, but the weakness in the group could give an opportunity to re-load around 25-26.  This is definitely in the early stages of it's move.  

VIMC has been glorious.  The trend is still higher on every time frame and it may need some time to chill.  Note the test of the long term resistance.  

VRA greed got me here.  It was a shit entry, and if this wasn't a heavily shorted stock that had just started running, It'd probably be down 25%.  Daily hammer support is at 26.50 and below that I'll be forced to minimize damage. 

IRBT is very disappointing.  It seems like just a matter of time before I get stopped out.  My thesis on this thing for the last eight months has been the 39 level on a closing basis.  It closed at 38.99.  Any movement away from there, on the close, gets me out.  

This stop is not a stance on the stock, but a risk management thing.  It's okay to like a stock and take a stop.

I tried to get a long term position rolling in GEOS at a long term pivot zone, but the stock is trading slippery.  It became evident quickly so I got out of it pretty quick (although I missed a nice 3 dollar pop to sell into).

This has shown 0 relative strength while the energy group rallied.

I also tried to buy a dip in SPLK.  This broke above a falling wedge so I gave it a shot at 73.44.  Well, that was wrong!  It bounced up to 76 quickly and faded immediately.  I got stopped out at 69.80. 

 One thing to note here was price ignored a key fib cluster at 75 on the move lower, but when it moved back up on the wedge break, it proved to be strong resistance.  

UVXY a position I'd held, just never worked out whether it was due to complacency or time affecting the instrument or whatever.  I had way too much conviction and was lucky to come to my senses on the trendline break-down last Monday at 62, because I'd of likely ended up selling it at 56.  

The lesson here is we always hear how you can't use TA on 3x ETF's.  Well when this broke support lines it dropped 8 points in 3 days.  You can make whatever you want out of it, but that's a characteristic of supply and demand. 

HZNP showed euphoric price action by using the upper bollinger band as support.  As soon as that broke, you knew to get out of it.  A primary use of bollinger bands is to tell you when price is stretched, and when stretched price is support, it sends a clear signal that things are out of hand.   

Good luck out there!


All ideas shown on this blog represent the authors opinion based on the data available.