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"I am the danger" - Walter Hartwell White

September 29, 2014

The Insiders

This buyback craze is getting pretty interesting.  It's important to note one reason companies are doing buy backs is well, it makes their stock go up

Of late, corporate insider are really lightening up on stock with a  3:1 insider sell to buy ratio.  It's pretty clear, in general, managements are being sloppy about their buyback programs.

Check out Factset's latest buyback report for Q2

 If you notice while digging through the report, buybacks are no more prevalent than they were the financial crisis.  You wouldn't have a clue just by listening to main street media.  Well, at least I didn't.

What do you think could bring put a damper on the buyback craze??  I'll say increased competition and innovation.

Re-pricing

After Yellen confirmed the end of tapering next month, the market has continued it's re-pricing of all assets from the dollar to bonds to stocks.

We all want to front run the end of QE, but in the past the market has held up until QE ended.  Regardless, Q4 is going to be big-time as many under-performing funds are desperate to catch up.

@lumberjax shared this fantastic chart on stocktwits the other day.


Trade 'em well

September 28, 2014

Rotation Report: All bear'd up

It's easy to get all bear'd up on the markets after this week's action.  Lord knows we all want to front run the coming post QE drop.  But the POMO is still here and the fact of the matter is we're at meaningful buying levels in the immediate term.  

After Thursday's 80% down day, the major indices found buyers at key supports and moving averages.  It seems plenty of stops were taken out Thursday.  Also, take note the momentum picture in SPY and QQQ is still neutral/bullish.




The most notable junk bond ETFs also found support at the summer lows.   




Monday Morning update:  If these levels are to break today, the volatility picture suggests we have significant room for downside.  There just isn't a lot of fear out there right now.


The Asia Pacific Fund, a diverse fund of the largest Asian stocks, found support at the 100D MA and ended up hammering for the week.  Also note the daily cloud support.  If inclined, there is a very clear level to trade against.  



The DAX continues to carve out a topping pattern.  If it were to top out and break down, trend support from the 2009 lows is nearly 20% away


The US Dollar continues it's strongest move in years,  One thing to note is the RSI.  The last two times it rallied this strongly RSI made an M top in the overbought zone.  


The defense group is loitering near the highs.  One of the strongest groups in the market no doubt.  



The shippers broke the 40 week MA with no hesitation.   


Financials broke their short term relative strength uptrend.  I'm interested to see if it holds sideways or moves lower.


XLE probed deep into trend support from 2011, and found some buyers at the 40 week MA.  Note the long term momentum picture is still positive.


After a false breakout last Friday, the regional banks fell fast to support.  This is a great place to take a shot if you like some names in the group.  


The short term downtrends in gold miners price and relative strength are unsustainable, but very strong.  It's probably worth watching the price pivot level.


Trade 'em well!

Reminder:

All ideas shown on this blog represent the authors opinion based on the data available.
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